Summary

Understanding which factors affect normal career longevity in professional soccer players will allow published outcomes after injuries in this group to be put into perspective.

Abstract

Introduction

Several studies have reported RTP and career longevity after injuries in professional soccer and all show that “still playing” rates decrease over time. However, it is not known how much of this is natural career progression for soccer players or if it is because of the injury concerned. To be able to determine this a better understanding of “normal” career longevity is needed.

Purpose

To determine ‘normal’ career longevity of male professional soccer players in England and demonstrate how these vary according to age, playing position, and team level played.

Methods

Four thousand one hundred and seventeen male soccer players playing in the top 4 English football leagues between 2005 and 2010 were included in the study. Match appearance data for the entire careers of these players, which ranged from 1992-2023, was utilised. Players were grouped into 5 ability levels according to the team level reached and their “still playing” rates, and career trajectory tracked according to age. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine differences by playing position and ability and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated.

Results

One thousand, seven hundred and ninety-five players (43.6%) competed in the English Premier League (EPL) and of these 856 (47.6%) also played for their national side. Goalkeepers had a longer overall career length than outfield players (12.4 +4.9 vs 11.6 + 4.7 years, p=<0.01). Participation decreases with age, with 95.7% of outfield players still playing at age 20, 85.7% at age 25 and 66.7% at age 30.
Outfield players in the EPL and those also playing internationally (EPL+I) play for longer overall and longer at their highest level (14.8+ 3.3 and 7.5+ 5.0 years) than lower league players (League 2: 6.2 + 4.1 and 2.9 + 2.2 years).
At 5 years, EPL+I and EPL outfield players have a 60% and 40% probability of continuing to play at their highest level respectively compared to less than 20% in The Championship and below. At 10 years this drops to 40% and 18% in the EPL+I and EPL respectively compared to below 2% in the lower leagues.

Conclusion

Career longevity is affected by age, position, and league level reached with English Premier league players having a 40% chance of playing at their highest level for 10 years, compared to 2% in lower leagues. When comparing career longevity in soccer players after injury the team level reached, position played, and ages of players must be taken into account. This study puts published outcomes of injuries in soccer players into perspective.